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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged up to 3.1%, while expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth, higher unemployment and tighter credit access, alongside increased spending and home-price growth expectations.
The European Central Bank’s September Consumer Expectations Survey showed euro area consumers becoming slightly more concerned about near-term inflation and the economic outlook: median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, while expected economic growth fell to -1.5%. Respondents also anticipated a higher unemployment rate and tighter access to credit, providing policymakers with a monthly reading of household expectations across the euro area.
The ECB reported on 23 October that median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6%, from 3.5% in August. Median inflation expectations for the coming year rose from 3.0% to 3.1%. By contrast, expectations three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and those five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The central bank said uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth also edged up, to 3.7% from 3.6%; perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. Meanwhile, expected economic growth over the coming year declined to -1.5%, from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3%, from 11.0%, while respondents’ perceived current rate was 10.6%.
Housing expectations moved higher: consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates 12 months ahead remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July. The ECB also said the net share of households reporting tighter credit access over the previous year increased from August, as did the net share expecting tighter conditions over the next year. The release does not provide the percentage-point size of those changes.
Households See Higher Costs and Risks
The survey records what consumers think will happen, rather than measuring future outcomes. Those expectations matter because they can shape household decisions about spending, saving and borrowing, and give the ECB another source of information when it assesses economic conditions and inflation risks. The combination of slightly higher near-term inflation expectations with a weaker growth outlook and rising unemployment expectations points to a more cautious household view than in August.
The results also show that the outlook differs across income groups. Respondents in the lowest income fifth reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations, and anticipated a higher future unemployment rate than those in the highest fifth. They also expected faster home-price growth and higher mortgage rates. Those differences suggest that the survey’s aggregate figures can mask varied pressures across households.
These findings are not a forecast issued by ECB policymakers. The ECB says survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. They are one input among other data sources, and the reported expectations should not be read as proof that inflation, employment, housing or credit conditions will develop as respondents anticipate.
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How the ECB Survey Is Compiled
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, so the figures reflect responses collected over that period rather than a single-day reading.
The ECB publishes country-level and euro area aggregate results each month and uses the survey to complement other information for policy analysis. Unless otherwise specified, the release’s statistics refer to the 2% winsorised mean, a calculation approach described in the ECB’s guide to aggregate statistics. The underlying microdata are available through the survey’s data and methodological information materials.
In September, inflation expectations over the medium term did not change, even as the one-year measure edged up. The ECB’s release also noted persistent differences by age: respondents aged 18 to 34 continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than respondents aged 35 to 54 and 55 to 70. These are survey patterns, not explanations of why individual groups hold particular views.
“Median expectations for inflation three years ahead and median expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged.”
— European Central Bank, September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey release
Limits of the September Readings
The figures describe reported expectations and perceptions; they do not establish what will happen to prices, growth, unemployment or borrowing conditions. The release gives the direction of month-to-month changes in credit access but does not quantify their size. It also reports increased uncertainty about one-year inflation expectations without providing a numerical uncertainty measure in the summary.
The survey covers adults in 11 euro area countries and is based on responses collected over several weeks. The published release does not explain the causes of each change or establish that the conflict in the Middle East caused the elevated uncertainty. Its statement is limited to saying that uncertainty remained higher than before the conflict began. Results may also differ across countries and households; the aggregate figures alone do not show the full distribution of views.
October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the next Consumer Expectations Survey results, for October 2026, for 27 November. That release will show whether the September movements in near-term inflation, growth, unemployment, housing and credit expectations persisted or shifted in the following survey wave.
Readers can also consult the ECB Data Portal and the survey website for country-level aggregates and methodological information. The October results will be another survey snapshot, not confirmation that households’ expectations have become actual economic outcomes.
Key Questions
What did the ECB survey say about inflation expectations?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and expectations five years ahead remained at 2.5%.
What changed in consumers’ economic outlook?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5%, from -1.2% in August. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3%, from 11.0%.
Did consumers expect home prices and mortgage rates to rise?
Respondents expected home prices to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged at 4.9%.
When will the ECB publish the next survey results?
The ECB scheduled its October 2026 survey results for publication on 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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